Wednesday, November 10, 2004

King by the Numbers

So King is back for another two years unless the rumors (probably false) of him running against Tom Suozzi for Nassau County Executive. King has floated other trial baloons for other runs against Schumer and those baloons popped pretty quickly.

The 3rd CD is a republican-heavy district if all you go by is party registration. Clinton and Gore did very well in the 3rd CD and so did Kerry. Voter registration is slowly tilting towards Democrats but King is safe with just the Republican party-line voters.

King has been scoring above 60% for the past elections even garnering 72% in 2002 against Stu Finz.

Where does Kings future lie? Possible re-election in 2006 unless his
opponent can
In an off-year election (meaning non-presidential) King does better with 65% in 1998 and 2002 with 72%. When there is a president on the ballot, King's numbers are lower... 60% in 2000 and 63% in 2004.
This year while King got 3% more and added to his total vote total by , his opponent got 7000 more voters than 2000.
The numbers are really all over the place for both King and his Democratic opponents....
From Presidential years 2000 to 2004 King gained 31,680 votes while his opponent gained 7244. This is only for 2000 and 2004 changes.
From year to year 2000 to 2002 King lost 18,397 and his opponent lost 46,001
From 2000-2004 King gained 50,077 votes but his opponent gained 53,245 votes.
In all, King has gained less since 2000 than his Democratic opponent.

What does this all mean? The Democrats are making strong gains and if they can make gains in voter registration in the next two years, raise the candidates profile and expose King's dismal record King can lose. Incumbents always have a huge advantage and as long as they haven't been caught with a dead hooker, they start with 60% and the numbers go up or down from there.

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