Thursday, October 12, 2006

Mejias in Statistical Dead Heat with King

Wow.
According to a RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics poll conducted between Oct. 8-10 (hat tip to reader Tim), Mejias has 46% and King has 48%. The margin of error of the poll is +/- 2%.

King is under 50% in a supposedly "safe" district and Mejias is within the margin of error.


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Link opens as .pdf.

7 comments:

TimJ said...

Look at the certain voter graphic. Prference Mejias 49-43, Hierarchical Mejias 50-43. Seems like those who have been more in tune to this race (hence certain voters) are really going for Mejias. those who usually vote, but haven't been paying much attention (hence likely, but not certain) may still be pulling for King, but that group pays more attention and moves more towards certain, wow. Regardless being 2 points out with 3 and a half weeks to go is great news, especially with about 8% still undecided. I would like to see another poll or two on this race, but this is VERY VERY encouraging

Anonymous said...

Well well well - King Peter may well be getting dethroned. So what do the detractors or doubters have to say now? Hey we dont have Diebold machines here, so the vote cant be fixed. Guess King Peter's constituents are tired of being treated like crap (how dare they write disagree with King Peter, so he will write them back nasty letters at taxpayer expense!!!!)

Folks, we are race here. Dave Mejias can WIN.This is for real. Enough supporting a corrupt President and administration, support for a wrongful war, coverups protecting a drunken pedofile in congress, opposing inspection of cargo container in our ports (and he is the so called chairman of homeland "insecurity" -what a joke!) and putting social security in danger. People do see it. Lets get the vote out and be sure the lever gets pulled for often for Dave Majias.

This is GREAT NEWS!

Anonymous said...

I'd be a bit critical of the poll. A Mejias-commissioned poll in July had him losing to Pete 50-35 and never in LI political history, esp. a race for Congress, has there been such a turn-around in 2 and a half months. If it's too good to be true, it usually is.

Anonymous said...

Dave Mejias will win!

I am a vollunteer for the Mejias campaign, and I do calling from voter registration list, and it amazes me how few King supporter there are. I think this poll is not even close. I think Mejias will win by a significant margin. There will be a debate between King and Mejias on Tuesday at the Levittown Library.

MEJIAS FOR CONGRESS!!!

Anonymous said...

Listen, if you look at all the nationwide trends and dissatisfaction with Repubicans, I do give this poll credibility. Second, please dont forget that King finally has a real challenger who is running commericals and getting the word out - and it is resonataing! And when potential donors see numbers like that, it means Mejias will get more money, increasing the likelihood of more commercials, visiibility, etc to beat King. Lastly, I looked at not only the King / Mejias poll, but all the polls nationwide in this survey - I do give it credibiity. Dont sell it short.

TimJ said...

Regarding the poll commissioned by the Mejias campaign in July. Keep in mind it was a few months ago, and before Mejias's campaign got on track. The poll was about 5 weeks after Mejias announched his candidancy and three weeks prior to the official launch of the campaign. Quite a bit has changed since then. While things don't typically change this much in two months, many things have happened, and many polls, especially early polls come down to name recognition. Mejias's name recongition has grown quite a bit (though their is still work ahead) over the past few months and that plays a big part in the difference. Another thing that really shows the first poll, King's lead was heavily name recognition based was some of the other questions, which showed the voters really wanted a change, at that point they just didn't know much about Mejias. Now his name recognition has grown, and the change that was obvious from the first poll that voters wanted is now reflected in the head to head matchup poll.

JJK said...

I am astonished that such an irresponsible, intellectually-absent, and inaccurate partisan blog such as this can exist. This is perhaps because blogspot is a free service, so anyone with at least two fingers can have a blog... apparently you don't even need a brain.

I'll refer you to any number of sources for a reality check on Peter King's upcoming victory:
1. Real Clear Politics: click here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/election_2006-21.html to see that Mejias does not make the top 50 most likely House party switches in this race.
2. King has more money, and money talks. Voters will essentially say "Mejias who?", if not because of King's notable record in the House or as Chairman of Homeland Security, then as result of his $2.5 million war chest (http://www.opensecrets.org/politicians/allsummary.asp?cid=N00001193).
3. You are all idiots. Just because scandals occur in other parts of the country, or perhaps because you just hate a Republican in power in Nassau County, does not necessitate a "watch-blog". You are better off focusing your energies on your careers and families.