Friday, October 13, 2006

More Numbers from Mejias v. King Poll

The numbers King 48% and Mejias 46% is just the tip of the bad news iceberg for King.
We get more information on the poll by RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics.
District breakdown can be found here.
Bush disapproval in the district is 56%.
Bush won the district in 2004 with 52%.
Voter motivation in the race is stronger among Democrats (7.0) and Independents (7.6) than Republicans (6.6).
Mejias beats King in Certain Voters 49-43%.
Under party identification, Mejias gets 72% Dems, 25% Rep and 42% Ind.
King gets 69% Rep, 18% Dem and 51% Ind.
King is losing his base but still has an edge on independents.
Mejias has more of his base supporting him and draws more republicans tha king does Democrats which off-sets the independent vote.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

You're quick to show all of Pete's weaknesses EXCEPT for the fact that 36% of those polled were "strong" voters for Pete. Mejias only had 30% labeled as "strong" voters for him. Mejias needs to convince the 12% who are "weak" to support him that he's the right man for the job, something that he has to do in the next three weeks.

politics64 said...

This one is more and more developing the feel of Bishop/Grucci in 2002. About four weeks out Bishop was suddenly in the hunt with an upgraded lean R rating from likely R just like this one. one week out it became a toss-up and on election day Bishop wins by 2,000 margin. I think team Mejias can feel real good about where they are at this time!

Anonymous said...

Wait a minute - so we are saying that there is only a 6 point separation in "strong" voters, and 12% hanging on the fence? With an overall 2 point margin in the poll? Not what I call encouraging if you are a 14 year incumbent like King Peter. Mejias does not have to convince all that many of the 12% weak voters to make the difference. This is a real horse race, contrary to those who thought King Peter would romp again.

TimJ said...

The strong voters is always going to be something that favors the incumbent, even when they lose. The only that doesn't is when its a blowout. Does Mejias need to sure up the weak support? yes, but weak support hurts an Incumbent much more than it does a Challenger.

Joshua Trupin said...

The time has come to do some reverse campaigning. I'm thinking signs that say "Iraq is going well. Vote Pete King." Or "Bush is a great president. Vote Pete King." Drive up his negatives so that people stop thinking he's a free-thinking bipartisan. That's what I've heard most from people who are pushing back on Mejias.

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure about the rest of you, but as it is I pay almost $10K in property taxes per year and that is with a Republican in office. I happen to agree with Pete King's views on immigration and national security, while I also tend to disagree on other national issues. But people really need to think more locally about this race and not be so concerned about how many times Pete King has agreed with the president. With a Democrat in office, you can be sure your property taxes will be increased without a fight from Mejias. He will also vote to raise income taxes as well as vote against a lot of tax incentives that have been enacted during the Bush presidency, which help many people on Long Island considering our average salaries are far greater than others throughout the country. So, for that 12% or so that is weak and whoever is undecided, take a look at your checkbooks and see how much more you can dole out to the government. As far as I am concerned, I pay more than enough!

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure about the rest of you, but as it is I pay almost $10K in property taxes per year and that is with a Republican in office. I happen to agree with Pete King's views on immigration and national security, while I also tend to disagree on other national issues. But people really need to think more locally about this race and not be so concerned about how many times Pete King has agreed with the president. With a Democrat in office, you can be sure your property taxes will be increased without a fight from Mejias. He will also vote to raise income taxes as well as vote against a lot of tax incentives that have been enacted during the Bush presidency, which help many people on Long Island considering our average salaries are far greater than others throughout the country. So, for that 12% or so that is weak and whoever is undecided, take a look at your checkbooks and see how much more you can dole out to the government. As far as I am concerned, I pay more than enough!

Anonymous said...

Mejias has never voted for a tax increase.
With Kings votes, more unfunded mandates came down to raise your local taxes.
With Kings votes, the deficit is the largest it has ever been.