Saturday, November 11, 2006

Analysis from Guest Blogger E Part 2

1. 31,758 more people voted in the 3rd CD than in the 2nd CD. The reason for that would seem to be that people in the 3rd CD, whether Democrat or Republican, viewed the race as being close, whereas Israel was seen as a lock in the 2nd. And again, more than half of that difference came from the Suffolk portion of the 3rd.
2. Steve Israel won the Nassau portion of the 2nd CD that was formerly part of the 3rd by a margin of 78% to 22%. As I know many people who live in that part of the district who normally vote straight D down the line, it can be assumed that Dave would have won that area by the same margin.
3. Clearly this is speculation, but if you take the 36,506 people who voted in the Suffolk portion of the 3rd CD and assign that number to the Nassau portion of the 2nd CD, and project the vote at the 78-22 that it came out for Israel/Bugler to Mejias/King, and add the totals to the 3rd CD race minus the Suffolk portion, Dave wins 89,703 to 84,519. Maybe this would not have happened, but the bottom line is that it shows that if the 3rd CD was reconfigured to its pre-2002 lines, it is at least a competitive district for a Democrat, whereas now it is not unless that Democrat was already known and popular throughout the district (remember, when the race started, 60% of the people in the district had never heard of Dave).
4. By the way, when doing this switch and adding back the Suffolk portion for the 2nd, Israel still wins 63%-37%. Not quite 70%-30%, but still very convincing, and evidence that he does not need the Nassau portion.


Anonymous said...

Since guest blogger is able to come up with a silver lining anyway he wants, I'll do the same. If King's District only consisted of Massapequa he would have won by over 60%, so mejias actually did worse than everyone thinks.

The sad thing for you guys is that you really thought you were going to win. You didn't think it was going to be close, you thought you were going to win. Now you're looking for a silver lining? You can't look for a silver lining when you thought you were going to win.

Anonymous said...

Wait a minute. What the hell does Massapequa have to do with redistricting?????? Listen, your guy is in a heavily heavily republican district and was lucky to win because the district was restructured. Period. End of story. Second, for my part, I HOPED Dave would win and though he had a legit chance, but thought it would be close. No one thought this was a guarantee. Bottom line - Hillary win by a 2-1 margin and barely won Massapequa, thats how heavily Republican it is. So thank Steve Israel for King's re-election and stop YOUR sour grapes. To me the silver lining is that we get to see how King Peter does in the MINORITY.

See you in 2 years when we finally throw him out.